At the recently held “2010 CCTV China Economic Year Forumâ€, experts predict that the overall increase in CPI (consumer price index) in 2010 will not exceed 3.5%. This year, prices will show a trend of highs and lows, with prices rising in the first quarter. The pressure is greatest. The tightening policy may be gradually introduced.
Wang Yiming, executive deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the forum that the overall CPI in 2010 will not exceed 3.5%, and is expected to be 3.3%.
In his view, last year's rise in prices was caused by the overlapping of several factors. For example, natural disasters caused a shortage of vegetables and some agricultural products, and a large supply of money caused a short-term rise in prices. In the medium and long term, the increase in labor costs is an important factor in rising prices. In addition, the rise in the prices of international raw materials and the quantitative easing policies of the United States have also contributed to the rise in prices in China.
For this year's price trend, Wang Yiming believes that some of the various factors that caused price rises in the previous period are in controllable areas. For example, liquidity problems can be tightened to regulate and control, and agricultural products can also be supplied through agricultural inputs, increased supply, etc. To solve. However, some long-term factors, such as the continuous increase in labor costs and the rise in commodity prices, are “difficult to solve in the short term, so inflation pressure in China still exists this yearâ€. In Wang Yiming's view, China's commodity prices will not rise significantly in the future, but decision-making departments should have a clear understanding.
Pa Shusong, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, agrees. He said that from the perspective of the whole year, prices will show a trend of highs and lows. The first quarter should be a period of relatively high price pressures for the whole year, and the fourth quarter will return to within 4%.
Ba Shusong believes that it is not enough to talk about price of Chinese prices. The current rise in inflationary pressure is a global phenomenon, especially in some developing countries with relatively rapid economic development, such as India, Russia, and Brazil. The CPI is already between 5% and 10%. This is a manifestation of the market after countries have adopted loose monetary policies in response to the global financial crisis.
"In the first quarter of this year, China's imminent central bank bill will probably exceed 1 trillion yuan. At the same time, after prices have fallen in December last year, there is still room for growth in January and February of this year. Therefore, before the arrival of high prices, decisions are made. Departments should take measures as soon as possible to curb inflationary expectations, which is an important direction of monetary policy.†Ba Shusong analyzed.
Huang Ming, a professor at the Institute of International Relations Management at the China Europe International Business School, also stated that rising prices will force decision-makers to take measures to recover liquidity. "Especially in the first half of this year, the determination of the government to recover liquidity is beyond doubt," said Huang Ming.
In order to control liquidity and reduce the pressure of rising prices, the central bank recently raised the deposit reserve ratio again. In this regard, Ba Shusong said that the use of reserve ratio to recover liquidity not only in the first quarter, may be a normal policy measures throughout the year.
However, Ba Shusong did not feel pessimistic about China's overall economic situation this year. He believes that after the financial crisis, the growth of the Chinese economy between 8% and 10% is sustainable, so 2011 is just back to normal growth, and GDP (gross domestic product) growth is expected to be between 9% and 10%. between.
Wang Yiming, executive deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the forum that the overall CPI in 2010 will not exceed 3.5%, and is expected to be 3.3%.
In his view, last year's rise in prices was caused by the overlapping of several factors. For example, natural disasters caused a shortage of vegetables and some agricultural products, and a large supply of money caused a short-term rise in prices. In the medium and long term, the increase in labor costs is an important factor in rising prices. In addition, the rise in the prices of international raw materials and the quantitative easing policies of the United States have also contributed to the rise in prices in China.
For this year's price trend, Wang Yiming believes that some of the various factors that caused price rises in the previous period are in controllable areas. For example, liquidity problems can be tightened to regulate and control, and agricultural products can also be supplied through agricultural inputs, increased supply, etc. To solve. However, some long-term factors, such as the continuous increase in labor costs and the rise in commodity prices, are “difficult to solve in the short term, so inflation pressure in China still exists this yearâ€. In Wang Yiming's view, China's commodity prices will not rise significantly in the future, but decision-making departments should have a clear understanding.
Pa Shusong, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, agrees. He said that from the perspective of the whole year, prices will show a trend of highs and lows. The first quarter should be a period of relatively high price pressures for the whole year, and the fourth quarter will return to within 4%.
Ba Shusong believes that it is not enough to talk about price of Chinese prices. The current rise in inflationary pressure is a global phenomenon, especially in some developing countries with relatively rapid economic development, such as India, Russia, and Brazil. The CPI is already between 5% and 10%. This is a manifestation of the market after countries have adopted loose monetary policies in response to the global financial crisis.
"In the first quarter of this year, China's imminent central bank bill will probably exceed 1 trillion yuan. At the same time, after prices have fallen in December last year, there is still room for growth in January and February of this year. Therefore, before the arrival of high prices, decisions are made. Departments should take measures as soon as possible to curb inflationary expectations, which is an important direction of monetary policy.†Ba Shusong analyzed.
Huang Ming, a professor at the Institute of International Relations Management at the China Europe International Business School, also stated that rising prices will force decision-makers to take measures to recover liquidity. "Especially in the first half of this year, the determination of the government to recover liquidity is beyond doubt," said Huang Ming.
In order to control liquidity and reduce the pressure of rising prices, the central bank recently raised the deposit reserve ratio again. In this regard, Ba Shusong said that the use of reserve ratio to recover liquidity not only in the first quarter, may be a normal policy measures throughout the year.
However, Ba Shusong did not feel pessimistic about China's overall economic situation this year. He believes that after the financial crisis, the growth of the Chinese economy between 8% and 10% is sustainable, so 2011 is just back to normal growth, and GDP (gross domestic product) growth is expected to be between 9% and 10%. between.
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