In recent years, under the protection of national support policies, China's wheat market has enjoyed a bumper harvest for six consecutive years. Prices have not fallen due to market supply pressure, but have been based on steady growth under the control of the national macro-control policies. Based on this, it is expected that the future wheat market will continue to take the "policy market" as its main tone and continue its steady upward trend.
1. Summer grain sown area and production data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sown area of ​​summer grain steadily expanded. In 2010, the sown area of ​​the national summer grain continued to increase steadily. The survey results showed that in 2010, the total area of ​​summer grain sown was 24,421 thousand hectares (4.11 million mu), an increase of 38.4 thousand hectares (58 million mu) over the previous year, an increase of 0.1%. Winter wheat sown area increased by 173 thousand hectares (2.6 million mu), an increase of 0.8%, and the sowing area of ​​spring wheat in Northwest China decreased. Due to the expansion of the area, the output of grain was increased by 170,000 tons (300 million kg). Summer grain yields have declined. In 2010, the national summer grain yield per unit area was 4489.3 kg, which was a decrease of 20.4 kg compared with the previous year and a decrease of 0.4%. Summer yields such as Yunnan and Guizhou suffered more severe declines. Due to the decrease in yield, the output of grain was reduced by 560,000 tons (1.1 billion kilograms).
The total output of wheat exceeded the previous year, increasing production for seven consecutive years. The output of wheat, which accounts for more than 90% of the total output of summer grain in the country, has continued to increase, and the output of summer wheat in the country has exceeded the previous year. Among them, winter wheat output was 108.79 million tons (217.6 billion jin), an increase of nearly 1 million tons (2 billion jin) from the previous year, and spring wheat and summer grain production was reduced by 1.4 million tons (2.8 billion jin).
2. Recently, international wheat prices have risen sharply. International wheat prices have risen sharply recently. The FOB price of US No. 2 soft red winter wheat delivered in September was US$268.7/ton, which was equivalent to 1,824 yuan/ton, and the total cost after paying duty at China’s ports was approximately 2. 2641 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year rose 865 yuan / ton. Although the Chinese government has enough wheat reserves to control the market price of wheat in a reasonable range, the wheat market is limited by the impact of international prices, but in a certain psychological, it also helped the main body of bullish mentality.
3, the late flour market will come out of the trough With the start of the semester of colleges and universities and the weather gradually cool, flour sales will gradually out of low into the sales boom. According to the survey, orders for flour companies have generally increased recently, and flour prices have also increased. On August 19, the factory price of flour for flour mills was 2,460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The increase in demand also played a role in the increase of wheat prices.
4. Policy support From the perspective of the country's various policies and guidelines for benefiting farmers in recent years, the trend of a steady rise in food prices is in line with the requirements of the state's various guidelines and policies. The year-on-year increase in the purchase price of the city is a reflection of the benefits of grain for grain farmers. On this basis, in October 2010, the national market price for the care of the country has been raised by 3 points per catty compared with 2009. It is expected that the market price in 2011 will not be lower than the market price in 2010, and the price of wheat will be step-by-step each year. The rise is the main tone of the wheat market.
5. The state’s macroeconomic regulation and control of China’s wheat production has been the sixth consecutive year of harvest. In recent years, the country has acquired large quantities of wheat in the city and has mastered enough grain sources to control the market.
According to the relevant data, as of August 20, the remaining wheat in the nation's total stock market was around 23.15 million tons, of which Shandong province had a surplus of 1.63 million tons of wheat in 2009 (the remaining stock of wheat was 36,900 tons in 09 tortoise in Texas). Although it is difficult to surpass the previous year's level, the state still controls enough grain sources in the hands of the city and has enough capacity to regulate the late-stage wheat market, which provides a strong guarantee for the price of wheat in a reasonable space. 6. Further increase in the price of grain for sale by grain farmers With the continuous deepening of the country's policy of benefiting farmers, a step-by-step rise in food prices has basically become the law of the market, and the price of grain for farmers has also increased annually. The low price does not sell. The concept of reluctant sellers effectively supports the bottom space of the wheat market.
In summary, under the joint influence of many factors such as grain and farmer's reluctance to sell, market demand, and national macro-control, the wheat market will show a steady upward trend in a reasonable price range.
1. Summer grain sown area and production data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sown area of ​​summer grain steadily expanded. In 2010, the sown area of ​​the national summer grain continued to increase steadily. The survey results showed that in 2010, the total area of ​​summer grain sown was 24,421 thousand hectares (4.11 million mu), an increase of 38.4 thousand hectares (58 million mu) over the previous year, an increase of 0.1%. Winter wheat sown area increased by 173 thousand hectares (2.6 million mu), an increase of 0.8%, and the sowing area of ​​spring wheat in Northwest China decreased. Due to the expansion of the area, the output of grain was increased by 170,000 tons (300 million kg). Summer grain yields have declined. In 2010, the national summer grain yield per unit area was 4489.3 kg, which was a decrease of 20.4 kg compared with the previous year and a decrease of 0.4%. Summer yields such as Yunnan and Guizhou suffered more severe declines. Due to the decrease in yield, the output of grain was reduced by 560,000 tons (1.1 billion kilograms).
The total output of wheat exceeded the previous year, increasing production for seven consecutive years. The output of wheat, which accounts for more than 90% of the total output of summer grain in the country, has continued to increase, and the output of summer wheat in the country has exceeded the previous year. Among them, winter wheat output was 108.79 million tons (217.6 billion jin), an increase of nearly 1 million tons (2 billion jin) from the previous year, and spring wheat and summer grain production was reduced by 1.4 million tons (2.8 billion jin).
2. Recently, international wheat prices have risen sharply. International wheat prices have risen sharply recently. The FOB price of US No. 2 soft red winter wheat delivered in September was US$268.7/ton, which was equivalent to 1,824 yuan/ton, and the total cost after paying duty at China’s ports was approximately 2. 2641 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year rose 865 yuan / ton. Although the Chinese government has enough wheat reserves to control the market price of wheat in a reasonable range, the wheat market is limited by the impact of international prices, but in a certain psychological, it also helped the main body of bullish mentality.
3, the late flour market will come out of the trough With the start of the semester of colleges and universities and the weather gradually cool, flour sales will gradually out of low into the sales boom. According to the survey, orders for flour companies have generally increased recently, and flour prices have also increased. On August 19, the factory price of flour for flour mills was 2,460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The increase in demand also played a role in the increase of wheat prices.
4. Policy support From the perspective of the country's various policies and guidelines for benefiting farmers in recent years, the trend of a steady rise in food prices is in line with the requirements of the state's various guidelines and policies. The year-on-year increase in the purchase price of the city is a reflection of the benefits of grain for grain farmers. On this basis, in October 2010, the national market price for the care of the country has been raised by 3 points per catty compared with 2009. It is expected that the market price in 2011 will not be lower than the market price in 2010, and the price of wheat will be step-by-step each year. The rise is the main tone of the wheat market.
5. The state’s macroeconomic regulation and control of China’s wheat production has been the sixth consecutive year of harvest. In recent years, the country has acquired large quantities of wheat in the city and has mastered enough grain sources to control the market.
According to the relevant data, as of August 20, the remaining wheat in the nation's total stock market was around 23.15 million tons, of which Shandong province had a surplus of 1.63 million tons of wheat in 2009 (the remaining stock of wheat was 36,900 tons in 09 tortoise in Texas). Although it is difficult to surpass the previous year's level, the state still controls enough grain sources in the hands of the city and has enough capacity to regulate the late-stage wheat market, which provides a strong guarantee for the price of wheat in a reasonable space. 6. Further increase in the price of grain for sale by grain farmers With the continuous deepening of the country's policy of benefiting farmers, a step-by-step rise in food prices has basically become the law of the market, and the price of grain for farmers has also increased annually. The low price does not sell. The concept of reluctant sellers effectively supports the bottom space of the wheat market.
In summary, under the joint influence of many factors such as grain and farmer's reluctance to sell, market demand, and national macro-control, the wheat market will show a steady upward trend in a reasonable price range.
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