Li Guoxiang: Do not over-react to rising international food prices

The sharp fluctuations in the international food market have aroused widespread domestic attention. How does China respond to this international food market price increase? Is it ignored or is it rainy or active?

The first thing to be ascertained is that we cannot easily stay out of the way for such market changes.

China has gradually become a major importer of food. Soybean imports account for nearly half of the world's trade, and imports of major grains such as corn are increasing. In the past, the strategy of standing by under closed economic conditions may be difficult to achieve.

Although domestic self-sufficiency rates for rice, wheat and even corn in China are high, the food production in the United States, the world’s leading food exporter, has suffered severe droughts when the markets for international and domestic agricultural products (5.39, 0.00, and 0.00%) are highly integrated. As a result, the price of food has soared. Any attempt to separate domestic and international markets from the impact of international market fluctuations may be in vain.

In 2008, when the global food crisis broke out, there was a serious shortage of rice in many Southeast Asian countries, and China’s rice supply was sufficient. China, like most other countries, has adopted a policy of ban on exports. However, not only has it not completely banned exports, it has caused smuggling. As a result, international food prices have plummeted and we have lost many economic benefits. Moreover, after the incident was also criticized by some international public opinion, the image of big powers was damaged.

However, when international food prices are high, China should import it with caution.

The questioning of China's grain production for many years now is still inaudible and even doubts about China's food stocks. This type of person who has always been aware of the "suspicion" of food security in China has positive significance in promoting China's emphasis on food security in economic development and ensuring the continuous improvement of food security. However, excessive “concerns” can often bring economic damage at this important moment, and it will also have an out-of-date impact on guiding policy options for food import and export.

The United States was arid, and its grain production was lowered. The US agricultural product futures market responded quickly. If the importing country is concerned at this time that food prices will rise too much in the future, or if it considers a large number of imports in the short term due to domestic food security, it will inevitably cause a new round of rising food prices.

There is food in the hands, and I don't panic in my heart. To have confidence in China's total grain and inventories, do not over-react to rising international food prices. Taking a step back, China has become the largest foreign exchange reserve country in the world. The purchasing power of imported grain is not a problem. In the case of severe fluctuations in the international food market, calm and calm responses are often the final winners.

In the long run, China must cultivate the right to speak about grain pricing.

Recent international and domestic wheat market price trends have emerged as a “different”. Global wheat is estimated to be significantly reduced production, production and demand will appear gaps, wheat prices are expected to rise in the international market.

This year, domestic wheat production has increased for the ninth consecutive year. However, unlike in previous years, the acquisition market has not only failed to rush to buy, but Xinmai has been trading lightly after the listing and the price of wheat is expected to decline. Some social storage enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude, buying up or not buying. The phenomenon of decline was prominent; after rising costs, grain farmers were deeply puzzled by the low wheat prices and their sales enthusiasm was not high.

It is undeniable that the current situation of domestic grain supply and demand, domestic macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policies do not support the substantial increase in agricultural product prices. However, even without taking into account the domestic factors such as food price inflation pressure brought about by the increase in food production costs, the uncertainty in the domestic grain market price trend will increase significantly from the perspective of the international grain market operating situation and its conduction effect. At this critical moment, whether it is the government's top-level design or domestic grain processing and distribution, especially grain importers and exporters, it is even more necessary to handle the international and domestic markets for agricultural products and promote the stability of domestic food prices and the improvement of food security.

International and domestic wheat market prices show a completely opposite trend, which will provide more room for China's wheat to regulate through import and export. If China's wheat supply only consumes rations, there may be a relative surplus. And wheat as an alternative feed grain, under the influence of international corn prices soaring to domestic transmission, increasing wheat to replace corn is also a good choice.

Polymer Sink

Taizhou Gaogang District Dixin Medical Equipment Co., Ltd. , https://www.dixinmedical.com

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