A few days ago, Professor Huang Jianshi from the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences concluded a comprehensive study on the future trends and monitoring strategies for infectious diseases. The research systematically explored the various factors that could influence the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the coming years. It highlighted the broad impact of social, economic, and environmental elements on public health in China and assessed how understanding these trends could enhance our capacity to detect and monitor outbreaks effectively.
The project combined insights from epidemiology and sociology to evaluate existing infectious disease surveillance systems in China, the UK, the US, and Japan. Researchers conducted an extensive review of laws, regulations, and structures of surveillance systems, as well as the key factors influencing disease transmission in these countries. Based on a revised questionnaire from the China-UK Foresight Phase I project, they carried out structured interviews with 181 experts across China, aiming to forecast potential changes in the factors that shape infectious disease dynamics.
By synthesizing expert opinions, the team identified 47 major risk factors that could affect future infectious disease patterns in China, along with their projected trends over the next 10 to 25 years. Their findings revealed that 17 risk factors—such as aging populations, climate change, immigration, and urbanization—are likely to increase in the next two decades. Five factors, including intensive farming and unemployment, are expected to remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, eight factors, such as income inequality, poverty, malnutrition, and hospital-acquired infections, may decline. On the positive side, 17 factors like higher education levels, improved water and food safety, and increased public health awareness are expected to grow and support better disease control.
The research also focused on which of these factors should be integrated into current surveillance systems to improve early detection and response capabilities. According to Professor Huang, 44 out of the 47 identified factors should be considered for inclusion in the existing system, with 25 already showing strong feasibility for immediate implementation.
This study was developed through a collaborative effort between China and the UK, with support from the British Embassy in China. The findings offer valuable insights for shaping more proactive and adaptive public health strategies in the face of evolving infectious disease challenges.
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