Strong wheat market is still not optimistic

The impact of the sharp decline in the surrounding agricultural product futures and the advancement of their own profitability has been affected. Since late September, strong wheat futures have fallen sharply after the high levels of oscillation, returning to the previous lows. Although the government imposed a minimum selling price on 2013 wheat, it had limited impact on the market. Looking from the market outlook, the huge supply pressure and weak demand will determine the strong wheat futures are still not optimistic.

Spot market stable, Pumai youmai spread narrowed <br> <br> customary in previous years, the price of wheat and launched the "autumn offensive", this year's wheat price rise was not significant before and after the "double", centralized purchasing activities are not stocking More, the price of wheat is running smoothly. According to monitoring, the current price of new wheat products from second-grade milling enterprises in Xinxiang, Henan Province, is 2,290-2,320 yuan/ton, and in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, 2260-2,280 yuan/ton, both up by 20 yuan/ton from the pre-holiday stage; The new Maijin factory price is 2270-2300 yuan / ton, unchanged from pre-holiday. The performance of high-quality wheat remains stable. The price of high-quality wheat Xinmai 26 into the Xinxiang area of ​​Henan Province is 2340-2360 yuan/ton, the price of Shanyou 2018 in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province is 2280-2320 yuan/ton, and the price of Jinan 17 mill in Shandong Weifang district is 2330-2350 yuan/ Tons, both flat with pre-holiday. At present, the spread between high-quality wheat and common wheat is already relatively small, and the price difference between Jinan 17 and Gaoyou 2018 and Pumai is only 20-50 yuan/ton, and Xinmai 26, Shizuo 02-1, and Shanyou 9415 and other varieties are different. The spread of wheat is 70-100 yuan / ton, 10-20 yuan less than before the holiday / ton.

The narrowing of spreads between high-quality wheat and common wheat shows that due to the government's vigorous promotion in recent years, the production of high-quality wheat has increased rapidly and the supply is relatively abundant; on the other hand, it has been stated that the increase in the minimum purchase price of the government has a significant effect on the increase in the reserve price of Puma. However, the boost to Umami's price is limited.

A large number of corn market, limited wheat feed consumption

During the 2011 corn harvest period, there was continuous rainy weather in Huanghuai, one of the major corn producing areas in China, resulting in a very high moldiness rate of corn in the region. Many corns could not be used as feed, and the better-quality corn prices went higher all the way. Exceeding the price of wheat, wheat enters the field of feed consumption because of its price advantage. However, the sown area of ​​corn in China continues to increase this year. Although there are unfavorable conditions such as armyworm and natural disasters in some areas, the increase in production is a high probability event. At present, corn has been harvested and marketed in the Huang-Huai region, and the price of corn has dropped significantly, which is lower than the price of wheat. Feed mills began to adjust formulas to reduce wheat use. Feed consumption of wheat may not reach the level expected at the beginning of the year.

Raising the minimum purchase price has a limited impact on the market. In order to increase the enthusiasm of farmers for grain production and protect the interests of farmers, the government has continued to raise the minimum purchase price for wheat in 2013. From last year’s 1.02 yuan/kg to 1.12 yuan/kg, the magnitude is not too small. However, the market has already anticipated this, and the high volatility in the previous wheat reflects this expectation to some extent. Moreover, at present, the price of common wheat in China has generally been above 1.12 yuan/kg. Such a policy lags behind the changes in the market and it only serves to block the downside of wheat, and it cannot further boost wheat prices. Therefore, after the introduction of the policy, neither the spot market nor the futures market showed a stunning performance.

Good yield trend, the wheat supply with no fear <br> <br> recently reported that Hebei Yixian "money does not grow wheat, 2 million acres of wheat fields Abandoned", causing fears of wheat production. We don't think this worry is necessary. High degree of mechanization of wheat production, saving time and effort, in the current increase in rural migrant workers, the lack of rural labor conditions, wheat cultivation is more popular. The improvement of irrigation conditions has also increased the ability of wheat production to resist natural disasters.

In the continuous downward trend, the number of warehouse receipts in wheat has been increasing, and it has now exceeded 50,000. The volume of warehouse receipts has increased, indicating that the current price registration warehouse receipts still have profits. Judging from past years' experience, strong wheat only fell below the spot price, leaving warehouse receipts to flow out in large quantities. Therefore, the strong wheat market is still not optimistic.