The basic conclusions: The price index of edible agricultural products has narrowed by about 0.5%
The price index on edible agricultural products rose for five consecutive weeks, showing a week-on-week increase in the first four weeks, and the growth rate slowed for the first time this week. In December, the Ministry of Commerce’s weekly price index on edible agricultural products was: 153.13, 154.34, 156.14, and 156.92; the corresponding ring ratios were 0.37%, 0.79%, 1.17%, and 0.5%.
Changes in the prices of various agricultural products: Vegetable prices, meat prices rose to shrink, and food prices stopped falling This week, the prices of sugar and food in the nine agricultural products remained stable, and the prices of the other seven items all rose.
The wholesale price of vegetables (2.7) is still leading the rise. However, after seven consecutive weeks of rising prices, the weak growth rate also follows the law.
The month-on-month increase in meat (0.2) slowed compared to the previous week, mainly because pork prices remained stable in the latest week. In some regions, pork has been put into operation in late December to ensure stable market prices when demand is strong.
In addition, eggs (0.1), poultry (0.1), edible oil (0.1), and aquatic products (0.9) all rose in line with seasonal patterns.
Although no agricultural product price fell this week, the increase in the weight of vegetables and meat has decreased, making the weighted average price of edible agricultural products weaker than the previous week.
Maintain CPI inflation at 4.1% in December
The narrowing of the increase in the price index of edible agricultural products is in line with our previous expectations, so we still maintain the forecast of 4.1% inflation for the whole month.
In the January of the Spring Festival in January, the prices of all kinds of foods will further accelerate and make inflation stable around 4.1%. We estimate that inflation will drop sharply in February, one month after the Spring Festival, and will drop by about 1 percentage point to around 3.1%.
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