Agricultural planting is affected by many factors, among which climate has the most frequent impact on agricultural production. Agroclimatic refers to the climatic conditions closely related to agricultural production and crop growth and development, including factors indispensable for the growth and development of crops such as light, heat and moisture. It also includes unfavorable climatic conditions such as drought, hail, frost, and strong wind. These conditions not only affect the geographical distribution of agricultural production, but also affect the level of crop yield and the quality of the crop.
The status quo and trend of China's grain production development
In the past 40 years, China's climate has a general trend of warming and drying, especially in the north. In addition to parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northeast, precipitation in the eastern agricultural areas has continued to decrease. If the climate continues to develop in accordance with the above trends in the future, it will have an adverse impact on Chinese agriculture.
Although climate change will not shake the self-supply capacity of China's grain, it will increase the difficulty of China's achievement of future grain production goals. The requirements for material input and technical management of agricultural production will be higher, and additional agricultural inputs will increase.
Impact of climate change on crop yields
Studying the effects of climate change on agricultural crop yields requires the establishment of crop growth models linked to crops and climatic factors. The most commonly used model for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is the DSSAT-CERES model. The data needed for the model are crop growth agronomic traits, field management data, soil data, genetic parameters, and daily weather data. However, there is still insufficient research evidence for future changes in these factors.
Impact of climate change on crop growth
Climate warming will increase crop yields due to prolonged growth, but if there is no new adaptation technology after climate warming, the growth period of major crops will generally shorten, which will have a negative effect on material accumulation and grain yield. At the same time, the impact of increased heat resources on crop growth and development is largely restricted by precipitation changes. If precipitation does not increase correspondingly, it will have an adverse impact on crop growth.
Impact of climate change on crop quality
An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide will result in a decline in the quality of crops. In this way, the amount of food that human beings need per capita may increase in order to satisfy their own nutrition.
Impact of climate change on agrometeorological disasters
The most influential factors for agriculture are extreme climatic conditions, such as droughts, storms, heat waves, frosts, etc. The extent to which climate change affects the frequency and intensity of these climatic disasters is poorly understood, and the extent of impact in these areas is difficult to estimate.
Impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases
According to statistics, the loss caused by pests and diseases in China's agricultural output value is about 20-25% of the total agricultural output value. Climate warming will change the distribution of agricultural pests and diseases. Low temperature often limits the distribution of certain pests and diseases. After the temperature rises, the distribution area of ​​these pests and diseases may expand, thus affecting the growth of crops. At the same time, the greenhouse effect also prolongs the growing season of some pests and diseases, increasing the breeding algebra of pests, prolonging the damage time in a year, and crop damage may be aggravated.
Impact of climate change on the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides
Fertilizer efficiency is very sensitive to changes in ambient temperature, especially nitrogen fertilizer. When the temperature is increased by 1 °C, the amount of available nitrogen that can be directly absorbed and utilized by plants will increase by about 4%, and the release period will be shortened by 3.6 days. Therefore, in order to maintain the original fertilizer efficiency, the amount of fertilizer applied will increase by about 4% each time.
Climate warming will also change the application of pesticides. As the climate warms, the crop growth season will prolong, and the algebra of insects will multiply in spring, summer and autumn. The higher winter temperature will also help the larvae to safely overwinter, various pests and diseases. The widening of the scope of the epidemic has increased the spread of pests and weeds, which means that large areas of pesticides and herbicides will have to be applied in these areas.
Summary: Agricultural production is a typical process of natural and social factors, so the final impact assessment should be considered from both sides, because the same natural change process will produce different results in different economic levels of society. For a developing country like China, it is important to consider the impact of socio-economic factors on climate change adaptation.
This article URL: What factors will affect the impact of agricultural climate change on agricultural production?
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